Overview
- GasBuddy and AAA data show the national average for regular gasoline moved above $4 per gallon on Aug. 12, the highest level recorded this late in the year.
- The diesel market is especially strained, with the IEA reporting July diesel exports from Russia, the Middle East and Asia were about 1.3 million barrels per day lower year‑over‑year.
- S&P Global estimates refineries processed roughly 7.5 million barrels per day less crude than a year earlier while U.S. plants are operating near 95–97% capacity, leaving little spare refining margin ahead of seasonal maintenance.
- Russia’s diesel export limits, Chinese export curbs and repeated attacks on refineries have removed material seaborne volumes, driving U.S. retail diesel to about $5.32 per gallon and lifting refining margins to record highs.
- The supply squeeze raises inflation risks for freight, heating and construction and creates political pressure for the administration as the hurricane and maintenance seasons threaten further production losses.