Overview

• Iran has warned it will target any of the 19 US bases and regional naval deployments if President Trump approves strikes on its nuclear facilities
• Tehran’s Revolutionary Guard and allied militias retain short-range missiles and drones despite Israeli attacks that destroyed long-range launchers and Hezbollah’s arsenal
• US Central Command has reduced personnel at key bases, rerouted the USS Nimitz strike group from the Indian Ocean and reinforced defenses at Al-Asad and Erbil
• Iran is considering maritime measures including mining shipping lanes or closing the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could sharply drive up global oil prices
• President Trump has threatened severe consequences for any Iranian assault and suggested US strikes could directly target Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei