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yesterday

U.S. Fertility Rate Falls to 1.6, Demographers Warn Collapse Fears Are Overblown

Immigration-driven growth alongside rising older-adult labor participation suggests the country will keep expanding.

Illustration of a sperm cell and unfertilised egg mirrored by a bomb with a lit fuse
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© rawpixel.com via Freepik
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Overview

  • U.S. total fertility rate dropped to a record-low 1.6 births per woman in 2024, down about 25% since 2007.
  • Demographers caution that snapshot fertility measures can misrepresent actual childbearing, noting cohort data show women average around two children by age 44.
  • Despite rates below replacement, more births than deaths and ongoing immigration are projected to add over 22 million residents by 2050 and nearly 28 million by 2100.
  • Older-adult labor force participation, which rose to 26.9% for ages 65–74 in 2023 and could reach 30.4% by 2033, may alleviate potential worker shortages.
  • Partisan debates over reversing low fertility have pitted proposals for direct cash child allowances and IVF expansion against calls for extended parental leave and subsidized childcare.