Overview
- Officials and independent estimates published in October 2026 say Patriot PAC-3 and THAAD interceptor inventories were heavily depleted during the Iran hostilities and transfers to partners and are expected to remain critically low through about 2030.
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies and U.S. officials estimate the U.S. expended roughly 50–82 percent of pre-war interceptor stocks, with CSIS placing Patriot use around 61 percent and THAAD use as high as 82 percent.
- Lockheed Martin has proposed ramping THAAD output from about 96 interceptors a year to roughly 400, but typical contract and delivery lead times for THAAD can run 3.5 to 4.5 years and PAC-3 deliveries commonly exceed three years.
- The Pentagon has publicly disputed that the shortages undermine U.S. strike or deterrent capacity, while unnamed officials acknowledge a defensive shortfall even as some offensive munitions such as JDAMs and Small Diameter Bombs remain plentiful.
- The shortfall raises near-term risks to allied air and missile defense and will shape U.S. force posture and production priorities, with restoration depending on sustained industry scaling and an absence of further large-scale interceptor use.