Overview

• President Trump’s administration has doubled steel and aluminum tariffs on EU imports to 50%, prompting Brussels to weigh retaliatory duties on American goods.
• The ECB projects euro‐area growth at 0.9% in 2025 and warns a failure to secure a tariff truce could cost up to 1 percentage point of GDP by 2027.
• Current 10% US duties are already estimated to shave 0.7 points off growth by curbing exports and dampening business investment.
• Staff projections show removing unilateral US–EU tariffs could boost eurozone growth by 0.3–0.4 points in 2025–26.
• Germany and Italy face added risks to their industrial exporters, with Italy’s 2025 growth forecast already trimmed below 0.6%.