Overview

• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at fresh all-time peaks on June 27, capping a V-shaped rebound sparked by the April 9 pause in reciprocal tariffs.
• Fed futures now assign more than 75 percent odds to a September rate cut after May’s PCE inflation reading prompted the Fed to pause additional easing.
• A ceasefire in the Israel-Iran conflict and a U.S.-China framework agreement on rare-earth exports have helped reduce geopolitical risk premiums.
• Markets are watching President Trump’s three-month tariff pause, set to expire July 9, for signals on whether it will be extended or resume and potentially roil equities.
• Investors are eyeing upcoming Q2 macroeconomic reports and President Trump’s pending TikTok sale as catalysts for the next phase of market moves.