Overview

• The Big Beautiful Bill eliminated federal EV tax credits and CAFE penalties, ending the US emission credit market as of August 2025.
• Over the past decade, Tesla amassed roughly $11.8 billion in revenue from selling regulatory credits, including nearly $2.5 billion in the last four quarters.
• William Blair & Co. projects credit demand will slump by about 75% in 2026 and disappear entirely by 2027, threatening to erase Tesla’s credit-backed profits.
• The NHTSA has ceased issuing compliance letters enforcing fuel-economy standards, halting long-term credit deals and prompting Rivian to forgo roughly $100 million in expected revenue.
• Tesla’s sales momentum has eased as scrutiny of Elon Musk’s political activism intensifies, even as the company approved a new $29 billion pay package for its CEO.