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U.S. Employment Costs Cool in Q3 as Real Pay Edges Higher

The delayed ECI reading signals reduced wage‑pressure risk for inflation.

Overview

  • The Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter after 0.9% in Q2, with a 3.5% year‑over‑year increase that came in below the 0.9% quarterly forecast.
  • Wages and salaries and benefits each grew 0.8% in the quarter, while inflation‑adjusted wages increased about 0.6% from a year earlier.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics said data collection was disrupted by the federal shutdown, delaying the release and lowering September response rates.
  • Compensation gains were uneven, with Miami up 5.7% year over year versus 2.2% in Washington, D.C., and union workers outpacing non‑union employees 4.5% to 3.5%.
  • With wage pressures easing, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday, and the next ECI report is scheduled for February 10, 2026.