Overview

• Citi's chief US economist, Andrew Hollenhorst, predicts a recession in the US economy by mid-2024, citing weakening labor market and rising inflation.
• Recent data reveals a decline in retail sales and an increase in credit card delinquency rates, signaling consumer financial stress.
• Despite strong job growth and low unemployment, underlying indicators such as reduced hours worked and hiring slowdowns point to economic downturn.
• Economists argue that the dream of a soft landing for the US economy is increasingly unlikely, with a recession deemed the most probable outcome.
• Apollo Management's Torsten Sløk supports the recession prediction, highlighting the gap between current economic optimism and the reality of weakening indicators.