Overview
- The BEA’s preliminary estimate was released on December 22 nearly two months late following the October 1–November 12 federal shutdown.
- Real GDP rose 1.1% from the prior quarter, powered by faster consumer spending, with government purchases and exports higher and overall business investment slightly lower.
- PCE inflation reaccelerated in the quarter and inflation-adjusted incomes were flat even as household outlays strengthened.
- Market participants scaled back expectations for near-term Fed easing, with analysts saying the stronger print gives policymakers reason to hold rates.
- President Trump celebrated the figures and credited tariffs, while economists warned growth looks narrow—tied to wealthy households’ spending and AI/data-center outlays—and some reports flagged data-quality strains linked to the shutdown.