Overview

• The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey cuts the 12-month recession probability to 33%, down from 45% in April.
• Moody’s Analytics raises its recession odds to 47.6%, the highest reading since April 2020.
• Core consumer prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in May, the slowest pace in four years but still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
• U.S. employers added an average of 150,000 jobs per month over the past quarter and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% in June.
• President Trump plans to reimpose tariffs on major trading partners from August 1 and tighter immigration enforcement is reducing the foreign-born workforce, introducing fresh headwinds.