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US E-Commerce Growth Stalls to Decade Low Ahead of Tariff Pause Expiration

A looming July 9 deadline threatens to reinstate tariffs up to 50 percent for countries without finalized trade agreements.

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Amazon, eBay, SHEIN, Temu, Walmart, AliExpress, Lazada, Target and Etsy app icons on screen.
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Overview

  • An AlixPartners survey found double-digit year-over-year declines in online purchases across major categories, with office supplies down 13 percentage points and sporting goods down 12 percentage points.
  • About a third of consumers delayed purchases and 28 percent pulled orders forward to avoid higher duties, while two-thirds said they would switch to domestic suppliers if import prices rose 10 percent and 20 percent said they would “Buy American.”
  • Retailers have reported rising per-package delivery costs and responded by tightening shipping and return policies, raising free-shipping thresholds and emphasizing in-store pickup and membership requirements.
  • Online grocery sales have remained resilient even as other e-commerce segments suffer their sharpest slowdown in over a decade.
  • The 90-day tariff moratorium ends July 9, after which import duties could jump as high as 50 percent for nations that have not finalized bilateral trade deals.