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US Defence Report Flags Nuclear Risk in India-Pakistan Ceasefire

A US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment highlights nuclear modernisation in Pakistan alongside India’s China-focused defence drive following the early-May ceasefire.

Overview

  • A late-April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir prompted India’s Operation Sindoor on May 7, triggering missile, drone and artillery exchanges with Pakistan until a ceasefire held on May 10.
  • The DIA report warns Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and developing battlefield weapons with materials almost certainly supplied by China via Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey and the UAE.
  • Pakistan’s military priorities include managing cross-border skirmishes, counterterrorism operations against Taliban and Baloch militants, and continued nuclear modernisation to offset India’s conventional advantage.
  • India views China as its primary adversary and is advancing bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific to counter Beijing and bolster its global leadership role.
  • The report cautions that without sustained dialogue and with unresolved border tensions along the Line of Actual Control, expanding capabilities on both sides pose a high risk of renewed escalation in South Asia.