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US Defence Report Flags Nuclear Risk in India-Pakistan Ceasefire

A US Defence Intelligence Agency assessment highlights nuclear modernisation in Pakistan alongside India’s China-focused defence drive following the early-May ceasefire.

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A new U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report reveals India sees China as its primary adversary.
According to USDIA's assessment, tensions between India and China along the Line of Actual Control are “capable of escalating quickly”.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) Asim Munir at the passing out ceremony at the Pakistan Military Academy Kakul, Abbottabad, on April 26.

Overview

  • A late-April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir prompted India’s Operation Sindoor on May 7, triggering missile, drone and artillery exchanges with Pakistan until a ceasefire held on May 10.
  • The DIA report warns Pakistan is modernising its nuclear arsenal and developing battlefield weapons with materials almost certainly supplied by China via Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey and the UAE.
  • Pakistan’s military priorities include managing cross-border skirmishes, counterterrorism operations against Taliban and Baloch militants, and continued nuclear modernisation to offset India’s conventional advantage.
  • India views China as its primary adversary and is advancing bilateral defence partnerships in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific to counter Beijing and bolster its global leadership role.
  • The report cautions that without sustained dialogue and with unresolved border tensions along the Line of Actual Control, expanding capabilities on both sides pose a high risk of renewed escalation in South Asia.