US Deaths Projected to Surpass Births by 2033, Says CBO

The Congressional Budget Office attributes the shift to declining fertility rates, an aging population, and reduced immigration levels.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that annual deaths in the US will exceed annual births starting in 2033, seven years earlier than previously estimated.
US fertility rates, which dropped to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, are expected to remain below the replacement rate of 2.1 births per woman through 2055.
The US population is still expected to grow from 350 million in 2025 to 372 million by 2055, driven primarily by immigration rather than natural population growth.
Immigration will play an increasingly significant role in population growth, with the CBO warning that without it, the US population would begin to shrink by 2033.
Slower population growth and an aging demographic could have long-term economic and policy implications, as the proportion of the population aged 65 and older continues to rise.