Overview
- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March survey shows one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.6%, the highest level since October 2023.
- Consumers see a 44% chance of higher unemployment within the next year, the highest reading since April 2020, reflecting growing job insecurity.
- Aggressive tariff policies and an escalating trade war are contributing to inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, according to the survey data.
- Despite short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with three-year forecasts at 3% and five-year forecasts slightly declining to 2.9%.
- Stock market optimism has declined, with only 33.8% of respondents expecting gains over the next year, the lowest level since June 2022.