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U.S. Consumers Face Rising Inflation and Job Security Concerns, Fed Survey Shows

The latest NY Fed data reveals a sharp increase in near-term inflation expectations and unemployment fears, highlighting economic uncertainty driven by tariff policies and trade tensions.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York building is seen in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., December 16, 2017. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
A customer pushes a shopping cart outside a Kroger grocery store in Dallas on Feb. 21, 2024.

Overview

  • The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March survey shows one-year inflation expectations rising to 3.6%, the highest level since October 2023.
  • Consumers see a 44% chance of higher unemployment within the next year, the highest reading since April 2020, reflecting growing job insecurity.
  • Aggressive tariff policies and an escalating trade war are contributing to inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, according to the survey data.
  • Despite short-term concerns, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, with three-year forecasts at 3% and five-year forecasts slightly declining to 2.9%.
  • Stock market optimism has declined, with only 33.8% of respondents expecting gains over the next year, the lowest level since June 2022.