Overview
- The University of Michigan index fell to 50.3 in early November from 53.6 in October, missing forecasts and marking the weakest reading since June 2022.
- The survey’s current-conditions gauge hit a record low at 52.3 and the expectations measure slipped to 49.0, signaling growing caution about the economic outlook.
- Short-term inflation expectations edged up to 4.7% while five-year expectations eased to 3.6%, a mix policymakers watch closely.
- Sentiment declines were broad across ages, incomes and political groups, with an 11% improvement only among households holding the largest stock portfolios.
- The shutdown—now the longest on record—has brought furloughs, suspended benefits such as food assistance, airport delays and a freeze in federal data, raising risks to spending and clouding analysis.