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U.S. Consumer Confidence Strengthens to 61.8 as Inflation Outlook Softens

Recent fiscal and trade policy shifts have had minimal impact on consumer outlooks

A person shops for groceries in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon/File Photo
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Are things moving up, down, or both?
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 02: U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC. Touting the event as “Liberation Day”, Trump is expected to announce additional tariffs targeting goods imported to the U.S. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Overview

  • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8 in July from 60.7 in June, surpassing economists’ median forecast of 61.5.
  • Year‐ahead inflation expectations fell to 4.4 percent from 5.0 percent in June and long‐term outlooks eased to 3.6 percent, both their lowest readings since February 2025.
  • The Current Conditions Index climbed 3.1 points to 66.8, reflecting stronger confidence in current business conditions and labor markets.
  • Consumers’ six‐month personal finance outlook increased modestly to 58.6 but remains substantially below year‐ago levels.
  • Sentiment among high-wealth households remains depressed, sitting about 17 percent below its December 2024 level.