Overview

• The Conference Board index fell 1.3 points in August to 97.4, a modest decline that still topped economists’ 96.4 forecast.
• The Present Situation Index eased to 131.2 and the Expectations Index dropped to 74.8, holding below the level often viewed as a recession warning signal.
• Consumers reported job availability deteriorated for an eighth straight month, with slightly greater pessimism about future jobs and less optimism about income.
• Twelve‑month inflation expectations rose to 6.2% as write‑in responses cited tariffs and higher prices, with grocery costs drawing frequent mention.
• Recent labor data showed cooling momentum, including 73,000 July payroll gains, downward revisions of 258,000 jobs to prior months, and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.