Overview
- The Conference Board index fell 6.8 points to 88.7, missing the 93.2 consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
- The Expectations Index dropped to 63.2 and has stayed below the Board’s 80 recession‑signal threshold for ten straight months.
- The Present Situation Index eased to 126.9, with the share saying jobs are plentiful slipping to 27.6% and income expectations weakening.
- Consumers’ median 12‑month inflation expectation rose to 4.8% as plans to buy big‑ticket goods and to spend on many services pulled back.
- Survey write‑ins increasingly cited prices, trade, politics and the federal government shutdown, while separate data showed softer ADP payrolls, a weaker Michigan sentiment reading, and markets pricing high odds of a December Fed rate cut.