Overview
- The Conference Board’s Expectations Index fell to 63.2 and has stayed below the Board’s 80 recession signal for ten straight months.
- Assessments of current conditions weakened as the Present Situation Index slipped to 126.9 and the share saying jobs are plentiful declined to 27.6%.
- Consumers’ write‑ins highlighted inflation, tariffs and trade, politics, and increased mentions of the recent federal government shutdown as key drags.
- Households cut intentions to buy big‑ticket items and pared planned spending on most services, with vacation plans retreating from October’s brief surge.
- Median 12‑month inflation expectations edged up to 4.8%, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller said labor softness argues for a quarter‑point rate cut in December.