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2mo ago

U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits Four-Year Low, Recession Fears Mount

The Conference Board reports a sharp drop in optimism about income, business, and labor market conditions, with key indices signaling potential economic downturn.

"Consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished," the Consumer Confidence Board wrote.
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Data: The Conference Board. Chart: Axios Visuals

Overview

  • The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 92.9 in March 2025, its lowest level since January 2021, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
  • The Expectations Index, which reflects short-term outlooks on income, business, and employment, dropped to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years and below the threshold typically indicating a recession.
  • Concerns about tariffs, inflation, and economic uncertainty are driving the decline, with older Americans and middle-income groups most affected.
  • Consumers' optimism about future income has significantly diminished, with more respondents expecting income decreases and fewer anticipating increases.
  • Broader economic pessimism is evident, with small business confidence eroding, stock market expectations turning negative, and credit card delinquencies rising to a 13-year high.