Overview

• The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 92.9 in March 2025, its lowest level since January 2021, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
• The Expectations Index, which reflects short-term outlooks on income, business, and employment, dropped to 65.2, the lowest in 12 years and below the threshold typically indicating a recession.
• Concerns about tariffs, inflation, and economic uncertainty are driving the decline, with older Americans and middle-income groups most affected.
• Consumers' optimism about future income has significantly diminished, with more respondents expecting income decreases and fewer anticipating increases.
• Broader economic pessimism is evident, with small business confidence eroding, stock market expectations turning negative, and credit card delinquencies rising to a 13-year high.