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4w ago

U.S. Consumer Confidence Hits Four-Year Low, Raising Recession Concerns

March marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, with the Expectations Index at a 12-year low, signaling deepening economic pessimism.

"Consumers’ optimism about future income—which had held up quite strongly in the past few months—largely vanished," the Consumer Confidence Board wrote.
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Data: The Conference Board. Chart: Axios Visuals

Overview

  • The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March, its lowest level since January 2021, as fears of recession and inflation grow.
  • The Expectations Index, a key measure of short-term economic outlook, dropped to 65.2, its lowest point in 12 years and below the recession-warning threshold of 80.
  • Older Americans and lower-income groups experienced the sharpest declines in confidence, reflecting heightened concerns about income, business, and labor market conditions.
  • Economists warn of potential stagflation, with Americans expecting higher inflation and stagnant incomes, while consumer spending—a critical economic driver—faces risks of slowing.
  • Uncertainty surrounding tariffs and trade policies under the Trump administration continues to weigh heavily on consumer sentiment and stock market expectations.