Overview
- The Conference Board reported on Aug. 25 that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.4, the weakest reading in seven months, as the Expectations Index plunged to 68.2 while the Present Situation Index rose to 121.2.
- Survey responses collected Aug. 3–16 showed rising write-ins about prices—especially gasoline, which averaged about $4.09 per gallon during the window—and more mentions of war and geopolitics as reasons for pessimism.
- Consumers judged the current labor market more favorably, with 27% saying jobs were plentiful, but far fewer expected more jobs in the next six months, reflecting a sharp drop in near-term labor expectations.
- Official payroll data painted a weaker jobs picture, with employers cutting 23,000 jobs in July and the Labor Department revising down roughly 103,000 positions from May and June.
- The split between stronger present appraisals and much weaker expectations has a partisan tilt and arrives about 70 days before the midterm elections, creating a potential political risk for the incumbent party while inflation measures and Fed rate discussions keep the outlook uncertain.