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U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Five-Month Low as Job Market Views Worsen

Economists say the slide threatens consumer spending, with a possible federal shutdown set to obscure key reports.

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Data the Fed can watch, like reports from the Conference Board, are showing recession fears while BLS data goes unpublished during government lockdown.
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Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

Overview

  • The Conference Board’s headline index fell to roughly 94 in September, the weakest reading since April.
  • The Present Situation Index posted its largest drop in a year and the share saying jobs are plentiful slipped to 26.9%, with job availability declining for a ninth straight month in step with slower hiring.
  • The Expectations Index eased to 73.4 and has stayed below the 80 recession-warning threshold since February 2025.
  • Price concerns resurfaced as the top consumer issue even as 12‑month inflation expectations edged down to 5.8%, still well above the latest CPI pace reported by the BLS.
  • Fortune reported economists expect a potential government shutdown to halt key releases like the jobs report and jobless claims, complicating efforts to judge whether weakening sentiment will dent spending.