Overview
- The Conference Board reported the Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9, with the Present Situation Index down to 109.3 and the Expectations Index falling to 63.6.
- Consumers cited rising prices and a September surge in fuel costs as central concerns, and 12-month inflation expectations rose to an average of 6.1 percent.
- Perceptions of the labor market weakened: the jobs 'plentiful' minus 'hard to get' differential narrowed to just +1.7 percent and more respondents said their family finances were 'bad' than 'good'.
- The survey, which covered responses through September 23, included the Fed's first rate hike since 2023 and markets seeing higher mortgage and Treasury yields, factors that push borrowing costs higher for households.
- The Expectations Index sits well below The Conference Board's 80-point recession-warning threshold, a development that could weigh on consumer spending and carry political significance with midterm elections weeks away.