Overview
- A Center for Strategic and International Studies review of six years of satellite imagery found a clear surge in construction and hardening at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026, including reinforced tunnel portals and heavier road traffic.
- CSIS analysts say the work is consistent with preparing a protected safe haven for nuclear activities but caution the site may not yet be capable of active uranium enrichment.
- President Donald Trump has publicly threatened to strike Pickaxe and U.S. military planners have kept the site in operational target packages under consideration this summer.
- U.S. efforts to meet the challenge include an emergency Defense Threat Reduction Agency contract tied to activity at a White Sands subterranean test site and Pentagon work on a next‑generation penetrator to reach deeper underground targets.
- Experts warn the granite depth and reinforced portals at Pickaxe likely exceed the reliable reach of current non‑nuclear bunker‑busters and that any strike decision carries high technical uncertainty and escalation risks that could affect oil prices and regional security.