U.S. Colleges Face Declining Enrollment as High School Graduate Numbers Set to Drop

A new report projects a 13% decrease in high school graduates nationwide by 2041, driven by lower birth rates and compounded by shifting educational trends.

• The number of U.S. high school graduates is expected to peak at 3.9 million in 2025 before declining steadily to 3.4 million by 2041, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE).
• The decline is attributed to reduced birth rates following the 2007 Great Recession and pandemic-related disruptions to early education pipelines.
• Regional disparities are significant, with the South projected to see a 3% increase in graduates, while the West, Northeast, and Midwest face declines of 20%, 17%, and 16%, respectively.
• Racial demographics will shift, with Hispanic and multiracial graduates increasing by 16% and 68%, while White, Black, and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are expected to decline by 26%, 22%, and 10%, respectively.
• Colleges are adopting strategies to address enrollment challenges, including targeting nontraditional students, increasing financial aid, and restructuring programs, but financial strain may lead to more closures and consolidations.

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