Overview
- Major indexes are set for double‑digit annual gains — about 17% for the S&P 500 and 21% for the Nasdaq — even as stocks drift lower on the final trading day.
- Gold is up nearly 70% for the year before a late pullback, with CME raising margin requirements twice this week as traders take profits in precious metals.
- Headline growth surprised to the upside, including 4.3% annualized GDP in Q3, while AI‑related corporate investment concentrated gains among a handful of tech giants, with some estimates putting AI at roughly 40% of 2025 growth.
- Labor conditions cooled with unemployment at 4.6% in November and affordability strains persisting as inflation ran at 2.7% year over year, though jobless claims unexpectedly dipped in the latest weekly report.
- The Fed cut rates three times since September and December minutes show officials divided on further easing, with a chair transition due in May as elevated tariffs and their potential lagged price effects add to 2026 uncertainty; some forecasters see emerging markets, notably India, outpacing advanced economies next year.