Overview
- China is set to receive only about 5 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and fuel oil by late February, roughly 166,000 barrels per day, far below the 2025 average of 642,000 bpd.
- U.S. enforcement has seized five Venezuela-linked vessels and deterred departures, with only three tankers still heading to Asia carrying about 3 million barrels of fuel oil and 2 million barrels of Merey crude for late‑February arrival.
- Cargo trackers Kpler and Vortexa estimate 43–52 million barrels remain en route to Asia, softening near‑term supply gaps even as independent Chinese refiners face growing uncertainty and look to heavy Canadian grades as alternatives.
- Trafigura and Vitol have begun marketing Venezuelan barrels under a U.S. mandate for March delivery to buyers including Indian refiners and China’s CNPC, while Chevron continues licensed liftings to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
- Shipowners are examining expanded ship‑to‑ship transfers off Venezuela despite aging storage, limited feeder capacity and port bottlenecks, and Aframax charter rates have jumped, with TD9 at US$78,795, TD25 at US$64,404 and TD26 at US$90,681 on Jan 14.