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U.S. Backstop and Zero Export Duties Lift Argentina’s Markets as Analysts Flag Unresolved Risks

Record farm dollar sales bolstered reserve prospects, leaving the exchange-rate setup plus political cohesion as the key variables.

Overview

  • The U.S. Treasury publicly outlined contingent credit lines, a $20 billion swap, and the option to purchase Argentine debt in primary and secondary markets.
  • Markets rebounded on the announcement, with bonds up about 20%, country risk dropping from roughly 1,450 to near 1,100, and equities gaining close to 18%.
  • The government temporarily set export duties to zero for key commodities, and farm exporters hit the DJVE cap of $7 billion in filings within three days.
  • Analysts expect the agricultural inflow to help rebuild reserves and cover upcoming debt obligations, while the currency band near its ceiling keeps the policy outlook uncertain.
  • After the Buenos Aires electoral defeat, commentators urge political rebuilding, and editorial voices such as Levante caution that U.S. support could foster external dependency.