Overview
- Industry outlooks cluster around 15.8–16.0 million new vehicles for 2026, with Cox Automotive projecting a 2.4% drop from 2025.
- Cox expects retail sales to slip 1.5% year over year and fleet volumes to fall 6.1%, signaling a broad but modest slowdown.
- U.S. sales reached about 16.3 million in 2025 after policy-driven buying bursts tied to tariff headlines and the phase-out of the $7,500 EV tax credit.
- EV momentum deteriorated late in 2025, with market share down to about 6.6% in December from roughly 11% a year earlier, and EV/PHEV lease penetration forecast to decline to 21%.
- Automakers warn of a tougher 2026 as tariffs and regulations raise costs and affordability stays strained, with tactics shifting to higher delivery fees, leaner incentives and fewer features rather than headline price hikes.