Overview
- U.S. officials say Washington will supervise Venezuelan crude sales indefinitely, with President Trump indicating 30–50 million barrels will be marketed under U.S. oversight.
- Crude benchmarks rose modestly this week while oil majors swung sharply, and Venezuelan sovereign and PDVSA bonds jumped from roughly 10% to near 35% of face value.
- The White House convened oil companies and traders, and Repsol said it could lift output in Venezuela from about 45,000 bpd to roughly 135,000 bpd within two to three years if legal stability is guaranteed.
- Consultancies warn that a full recovery would take years, with Rystad estimating around US$183 billion needed from 2026 to approach 3 million bpd by about 2040 and Wood Mackenzie flagging heavy crude economics near $80 per barrel.
- Regional supply is shifting as Argentina’s Vaca Muerta expands with EIA projecting roughly 810,000 bpd in 2026, alongside growth in Brazil and Guyana, even as Venezuela’s heavy crude targets differently configured refineries.