Overview
- Over the weekend both Washington and Tehran stopped attacks to give diplomacy space, and officials framed the pause as temporary and tactical.
- Global oil benchmarks plunged about 5–8 percent on Monday with Brent trading back under roughly $90 per barrel and WTI sliding into the mid-$80s.
- Stock markets reacted positively with major US indexes opening higher as investors scaled back the premium for a supply shock.
- Maritime flows remain severely constrained with Kpler reporting fewer than ten daily crossings of the Strait of Hormuz over the recent weekend, keeping supply risk high.
- Analysts warned the lull may not hold and central banks are watching energy-driven inflation closely while retail fuel prices in places like Spain remain elevated.