Overview
- U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday and Iranian Revolutionary Guard units said they retaliated by targeting multiple tankers and firing a missile toward U.S. warships, marking a clear uptick in tit‑for‑tat naval attacks.
- Commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to roughly 10 commodity vessels per day over the past ten days, the lowest level since May, which has sharply reduced Middle East crude flows to world markets.
- Brent and WTI prices rose to roughly six‑week highs near $96–97 and $92 per barrel respectively as markets priced a sustained supply shock and buyers moved to secure crude and shipping capacity.
- Diplomatic efforts are racing to keep trade moving: Iran and Oman are close to finalising a temporary safe route to register with the International Maritime Organization, even as the U.S. insists its navy controls Hormuz and Tehran threatens a new exclusion zone.
- OPEC+ left October quotas unchanged, a move that keeps paper output targets steady even as analysts warn those quotas are increasingly disconnected from the actual barrels reaching global markets while the strait remains disrupted.