Overview
- Researchers Jeffrey Lewis and Decker Eveleth say they are about 90% certain mobile Oreshnik launchers are being stationed at a former airbase near Krichev in eastern Belarus.
- Planet Labs imagery shows hurried construction since early August, a fenced rail transfer point for missile delivery, and a camouflaged concrete pad consistent with a launch site.
- Reuters reports the assessment broadly aligns with U.S. intelligence, while Russia and Belarus have declined detailed comment.
- Belarusian leaders say the system is on combat duty and could number up to 10, as the defense minister calls the move a response to the West and experts debate its military value versus political signaling.
- Analysts estimate the identified site can host roughly three launchers, and Ukraine’s president alleges Belarusian territory and equipment on residential buildings are helping guide Russian drones to evade defenses.