Overview
- Hiring undershot economists’ expectations for December, and earlier data were revised lower, including an October decline now reported at 173,000.
- Total nonfarm employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, averaging 49,000 jobs per month, the weakest nonrecession annual gain since 2003.
- December job growth was concentrated in food services (+27,000), health care (+21,000) and social assistance (+17,000), while retail shed 25,000 jobs.
- Federal employment edged up by 2,000 in December after steep earlier cuts, and the number of unemployed fell to 7.5 million from 7.8 million in November.
- The cooler labor picture is steering policy expectations, with the Fed’s rate at 3.5%–3.75% after three cuts in 2025 and CME FedWatch showing about a 95% chance of a hold this month.