Overview

• Revisions to prior months showed June at −13,000 — the first monthly jobs contraction since 2020 — and July at +79,000, leaving the three‑month average near 29,000.
• Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened as investors priced a September cut, with futures implying roughly 90% odds of a 25 bp move and a smaller chance of 50 bp.
• Hiring was concentrated in health care (+31,000) and social assistance (+16,000) while federal government (−15,000), manufacturing (−12,000) and mining and oil and gas declined; average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.7% year over year.
• Private and survey gauges echoed the slowdown, with ADP reporting 54,000 private jobs in August and job openings falling to their lowest levels since early pandemic months.
• The data land under heightened scrutiny after President Trump fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer and nominated EJ Antoni to lead the agency.