Overview

• June payrolls were revised to a 13,000 job loss, the first negative month since December 2020, while July was adjusted up to 79,000.
• CME FedWatch shows probabilities near 98%–100% for a September policy easing, with most bets on a 25‑basis‑point move at the Sept. 16–17 meeting.
• Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% on the month and 3.7% year over year as labor‑force participation edged up to 62.3%.
• Health care added 31,000 positions, manufacturing lost 12,000, and federal employment fell by 15,000 in August.
• Treasury yields and the dollar declined as rate‑cut odds climbed, and scrutiny of the BLS intensified after President Trump removed its commissioner.