Overview

• President Trump announced 50% duties on all Brazilian exports effective August 1 to counter alleged unfair trade practices and Bolsonaro’s Supreme Court trial
• Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira sent a letter expressing “indignación” while reaffirming Brazil’s willingness to seek a mutually acceptable solution
• A Quaest Institute poll conducted July 10–14 shows Lula’s approval rose from 40% to 43%, driven by support from educated, middle-class voters in Southeast Brazil
• The US Trade Representative opened a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s trade and digital-platform regulations, adding legal pressure to the diplomatic standoff
• The duties are shifting trade flows—Argentina’s forestry exporters eye roughly $150 million in new US sales—and Brazil has suspended beef and fish shipments pending talks