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Urban and Rural Households Pessimistic on Current Conditions, Optimistic About Future: RBI Survey

Eased inflation forecasts have households expecting a decline in price pressures over the next year.

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Overview

  • The Urban Current Situation Index fell to 95.4 in May from 95.5 in March, while the Rural CSI edged down to 100.0, signaling ongoing pessimism among city consumers and marginal caution in rural areas.
  • Urban consumers’ Future Expectations Index rose to a one-year high of 123.4, and the rural FEI reached 126.2, reflecting strong optimism about income, employment and spending prospects.
  • Median household inflation perception eased by 10 basis points to 7.7 percent in May, and one-year-ahead expectations dropped 20 basis points to 9.5 percent, with rural respondents reporting declines to 6.3 percent and 8.9 percent respectively.
  • Respondents reported slight reductions in current spending on essentials and non-essentials but anticipate increased outlays over the coming year.
  • The RBI conducted its first standalone Rural Consumer Confidence Survey alongside the renamed Urban Consumer Confidence Survey from May 2–11, generating insights crucial for forthcoming monetary policy decisions.