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Upstart Shares Slide on Mixed Q3 and Soft Guidance

Management says its AI model tightened lending during summer macro jitters, which curbed originations.

Overview

  • Adjusted EPS rose to $0.52, topping estimates, while revenue came in at $277.1 million and missed consensus slightly.
  • The company guided Q4 revenue to about $288 million and cut full‑year revenue outlook to roughly $1.035 billion.
  • Shares fell more than 14% the day after the report as several firms trimmed price targets, including Bank of America, Needham, Morgan Stanley and Stephens.
  • Loan originations totaled about $2.9 billion versus roughly $3.3 billion expected, with the conversion rate easing to 20.6% from 23.9% in the prior quarter.
  • Upstart returned to GAAP profitability with net income of about $31.8 million and reported roughly $71 million in adjusted EBITDA, even as technicals weakened below key moving averages.