Overview
- UPS has gained 9% in the first six trading days of 2026 and is up 32% since a fall low, reversing part of a five-year slide of roughly one-third.
- Bernstein lifted its price target to $125 with an Outperform rating, arguing dividend worries are overstated as UPS targets margin improvement and higher-return markets.
- The dividend yield is about 6.1% and the payout ratio is near 98%, with UPS reiterating its long-running commitment to maintain or increase the payout since 1999.
- Analysts forecast earnings growth returning in 2026, even as the company digests reduced Amazon volume, the end of the USPS SurePost program, higher Teamsters labor costs through 2028, and 2025 trade-policy pressures.
- Top-line trends remain soft, including a previously flagged holiday-quarter shipping decline revised to 11% from 13% and recent years marked by a 2023 revenue drop and flat 2024.