Overview
- Revised calculations now favor a lunar strike over an Earth threat, giving 2024 YR4 about a 4–4.3% chance of hitting the Moon on December 22, 2032.
- Modeling projects an impact at about 14 km/s releasing roughly 6.5 million tons of TNT and excavating a crater near one kilometer wide, the most energetic lunar impact of the modern observing era.
- The study forecasts a bright optical flash around magnitude −2.5 to −3 followed by a multi-hour to multi-day infrared afterglow suited to monitoring by ground-based facilities and JWST.
- Researchers expect a moonquake near magnitude 5, providing a well-calibrated seismic signal for instruments deployed on the lunar surface.
- Simulations indicate large amounts of ejecta could escape the Moon, with a small fraction reaching Earth from days to years later and prompting agencies to weigh possible deflection efforts against coordinated observations.