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Unusually High Advance Turnout Could Decide Alberta Referendum

Record mail-in returns have forced both campaigns to focus on turnout before the Oct. 19 vote.

Overview

  • Elections Alberta, which said Tuesday, reported 174,532 people cast ballots on the first day of five advance polling days for the Oct. 19 referendum.
  • The agency has approved roughly 418,000 mail-in ballots and says about two-thirds of the roughly 658,000 special ballots requested have been returned, creating an unprecedented early vote pool.
  • Campaigns have shifted from persuasion to mobilization with pro-Canada organizers and separatist backers racing to deliver supporters to the ballot box and Forever Canadian saying it has about 18,000 volunteers on the ground.
  • Election operations have been stretched by long in-person lines and high special-ballot volumes, with a few polling stations staying open late, including one that remained open until 11 p.m. to serve voters in line.
  • Public-opinion polling shows a clear majority preferring to remain in Canada but weaker support for beginning a legal independence process, so the final result will hinge on which side turns its expressed support into actual votes and could shape Alberta’s relations with Ottawa and the province’s political agenda.