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UNSW Study Predicts Surge in Giant Hail Across Australian Cities

Researchers say warming climates will expose six major Australian cities to more frequent giant hail, with emissions cuts and hail-resilient building standards as critical responses.

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Victor Gensini, Northern Illinois University meteorology professor and a lead scientist of Project ICECHIP, checks storm data in the command vehicle during an operation, June 3, 2025, south of Tipton, Oklahoma. Project ICECHIP is made of teams from several universities observing storms from the inside and seeing how the hail forms. (Carolyn Kaster/AP)
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Overview

  • UNSW climate models under a 2.4–2.8°C warming scenario forecast Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth and Kalgoorlie will face higher frequency and size of hailstorms by century’s end.
  • The simulations project hailstorm occurrences will climb by 29 percent in Sydney and Canberra and by 15 percent in Brisbane while Adelaide sees negligible change.
  • Melbourne’s chance of 10 cm hailstones shifts from once every 20 years to once every three years, with similar giant-hail interval reductions in Kalgoorlie (18 to six years) and Sydney/Canberra (three to two years).
  • Each degree of atmospheric warming holds 7 percent more moisture, intensifying updrafts and wind shear that drive larger hail, a hazard responsible for over 20 percent of Australia’s insured losses since 1967.
  • Experts are calling for tightened greenhouse-gas targets and updated national building codes to mandate hail-resistant design for roofs, vehicles and solar installations.