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Unstable Asteroids Near Venus Could Threaten Earth Over Centuries

Recent models suggest chaotic orbital instabilities among Venus’s co-orbitals could expose Earth to long-term impacts, spurring plans for advanced sky surveys alongside proposals for space-based detection campaigns.

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Overview

  • Simulations of about 20 known Venus co-orbital asteroids over 36,000 years show some may break free and drift onto Earth-crossing trajectories.
  • Each co-orbital rock exceeds 140 meters in diameter and evades detection when low-eccentricity orbits keep them hidden in the Sun’s glare.
  • Lyapunov times for these asteroids average just 150 years, indicating their orbits become unpredictable on century-long timescales.
  • Astronomers expect the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s wide-field survey, beginning late 2025, to reveal many of these elusive objects.
  • Researchers contend that a dedicated space-based mission near Venus is necessary to map remaining “invisible” co-orbitals and assess their long-term risk.