United List Leads Latvia Election

Overview

• Exit polls published after polls closed on October 3 show Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's United List with roughly 35.6% of the vote, putting it clearly ahead of other parties.
• The exit data place Latvia — First at about 11–11.3%, the Progressives at about 11.1%, and the pro‑Russian Sovereign Power at about 10.8%, producing a fragmented Saeima with several parties above the 5% threshold.
• Most parties projected to enter parliament back higher defence spending and continued assistance to Ukraine, so policy on NATO commitments and military budgets is likely to stay central in the new term.
• Forming a governing coalition will be decisive because several mainstream parties have ruled out working with Sovereign Power and vote splits mean Kulbergs must negotiate partners to secure a working majority.
• The Saeima's March law requiring manual counting of ballots remains in force and officials expect final certified results and the start of formal coalition negotiations to be reported on October 4.