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United Beats Q3 Profit Forecast, Raises Q4 Guidance as Premium, Loyalty Sales Cushion Fare Pressure

Premium gains, bolstered by loyalty sales, helped counter weaker unit fares.

Overview

  • Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.78 versus $2.62 expected, while revenue of $15.23 billion narrowly missed the $15.33 billion consensus.
  • United guided fourth‑quarter EPS to $3.00 to $3.50, topping analysts’ $2.86 estimate.
  • Capacity rose about 7% year over year in the quarter as unit passenger revenue declined 3.3% domestically and 7.1% internationally.
  • Loyalty program sales increased 9% and premium‑cabin revenue grew 6%, underscoring spending by higher‑value customers.
  • Management points to product and network investments as drivers of customer retention, with operational risks still in focus from past Newark issues and potential air‑traffic‑control staffing shortfalls tied to the government shutdown.