Overview

• United Airlines has issued dual full-year earnings forecasts, projecting $11.50–$13.50 EPS in a stable economy and $7–$9 EPS if a recession occurs.
• The airline will reduce domestic flight capacity by 4% starting in the third quarter of 2025 to address softer demand in the U.S. market.
• Premium cabin bookings have risen by 17%, and international travel demand has grown by 5%, helping offset weaker domestic performance.
• Economic volatility, driven by tariffs and trade policy under the Trump administration, has created significant uncertainty for the airline industry.
• United's adjustments reflect broader industry efforts to prepare for potential economic downturns while capitalizing on resilient high-margin travel segments.