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2mo ago

UniCredit’s Cross-Border Takeovers Falter Under High Valuations and Regulatory Opposition

Italy’s invocation of 'golden powers' against a backdrop of surging equity prices has stalled UniCredit’s major acquisition bids.

UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel leaves after attending the presentation of the Bank of Italy's annual report, in Rome, Italy May 30, 2025. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo
Unicredit CEO Andrea Orcel smiles as he leaves at the end of the annual Confindustria assembly in Rome, September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File Photo
The logo of Commerzbank is pictured at the company's headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, February 13, 2025. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo

Overview

  • UniCredit holds a 28% stake in Commerzbank and expects to convert its remaining derivative position to equity by the end of June.
  • CEO Andrea Orcel says Commerzbank’s 76% share rally this year makes a full takeover uneconomical for investors.
  • Chancellor Friedrich Merz has condemned UniCredit’s bid as uncoordinated, reinforcing Germany’s rejection of a merger.
  • Rome has frozen the Banco BPM offer through its 'golden powers', and Orcel estimates its odds of success at under 20%.
  • Uncertainty over UniCredit’s post-2021 Russian activities raises risk of sanctions and potential fines up to €20 billion.